Need an Expo Pass for Virtual Worlds 2008 in LA?

joelg | Virtual Worlds | Sunday, August 24th, 2008

Thanks to my friends at Virtual Worlds Management, I have 10 free passes to the EXPO at the Virtual Worlds 2008 Conference in LA, 9/3 and 9/4.

First 10 people who contact me at joel [at] unmassed.com with the subject line “I love Virtual Worlds” gets a pass. But hurry, registration closes 8/29/08.

Chris Sherman and his team put on good shows that are typically friendly enough for you to meet whoever you like in the industry. If you’re in LA, you should go if you’re at all interested in Virtual Worlds.

What You Can Do.

joelg | Sustainability | Monday, August 4th, 2008

OK, so maybe you’re upset about greenhouse gases. Maybe you think we need to get off foreign (or otherwise) oil. Maybe the high price of gas is killing you. Doesn’t matter. You want to do something. You want to do something now.

The problem seems so big, so out of our hands as consumers.

What can you do?

While there will most likely be opportunities to participate in a political solution this election season, there is something you can right now. You can educate yourself on the problem. I’m defining the problem as “Our energy future; how to get to a world where energy is affordable, abundant, and clean.” Here are some suggestions.

1) First thing I’d do, is spend 20 minutes listening to Amory Lovins’ TED Talk on “Winning the Oil End Game. It will challenge you to think differently about the status quo, whether or not you end up agreeing with all his points:

Lovin’s founded the Rocky Mountain Institute, who’s motto is: “In God we trust”; all others bring data”. His basic idea as that we haven’t designed cars, buildings, planes, etc, with efficiency in mind, so there are huge gains to be had when we do.

2) Then, if you want to dig deeper, you can hear Lovin’s expanded speech at the Pentagon, here, which goes into more depth, especially in terms of national security. Or, you can read his book, Winning the Oil Endgame, online for free.

3) You can read Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars that will Recharge America:
phevbookjacket_sm.GIF

Boschert’s books is a good introduction into Plug-in Hybrid Electrics (PHEV’s). She’s the Vice President of Plug-in America, a group dedicated to popularizing the idea of PHEV’s and as such, provides a PHEV-centric view.

4) For an eye opening historical perspective, you can also read Internal Combustion: How Corporations and Governments Addicted the World to Oil and Derailed the Alternativesiccover175x264.jpg

Interesting ideas in Black’s book:

  1. At the beginning of the auto age, it wasn’t clear what propulsion system would win, internal combustion or electric.
  2. Batteries suck. Edison new that, so he was working on a better battery. Black tells the story of how Edison failed.
  3. Electric cars at the turn of the century using lead acid batteries go essentially the same distance on a charge as vehicles using lead acid batteries today.
  4. An even-handed story of how a GM company bought up all the electric trolley systems in the US in order to put them out of business.
  5. Black calls for a “Manhattan Project” for energy to get us off oil and onto hydrogen.

With the above, you’ll have a good introduction to the issues at hand. Lovin’s talks are the quickest. I think anyone looking at this needs to seriously consider hydrogen; Black’s book gets into it. It’s my feeling that Plug-in Hybrid Electrics are a stepping stone to fully electric vehicles, but one that’s fairly close. The technology doesn’t seem that a big stretch from where we are now, so PHEV’s are a good start, especially when built upon popular platforms like the Toyota Prius.

Unfortunately, PHEV advocates pit themselves against hydrogen advocates. PHEV’s argument: “The technology is here, now, it just needs to be commercialized. Hydrogen is a distraction to PHEV. It’s more long term, so auto companies can use it as an excuse not to bring PHEV’s to market. Besides, the infrastructure doesn’t exist for hydrogen, nor is it clear that it’s a viable alternative. With PHEV’s, they’re typically plugged in over night, when electricity demand is low, supply sometimes go to waste, and rates are cheapest.”

The hydrogen advocates say, “PHEV’s are a stop-gap measure. They’re still internal combustion engines (ICE), with all their problems. Hybrids, and PHEV’s are more expensive because you have two propulsion systems. Also, not everyone can park their PHEV near an outlet, especially city dwellers. So, you’re going to have to build out plug-in infrastructure. And, if you plug in all these cars, the grid won’t be able to handle it. No one’s willing to talk about that deep, dark secret, not the least of which PHEV advocates. If we can put the research dollars into carbon nanotube storage for hydrogen then we can distribute hydrogen as a solid through many retail channels.”

I think the most likely scenario is a diverse future, where PHEV’s coexist side by side with fully electric plug-ins, “conventional” hybrids, and fuel-cell electric vehicles.

But to get there, you need to know the issues.

The Begining of the End for SUV’s?

joelg | Sustainability | Thursday, June 19th, 2008

I needed to rent a car for business trip to Phoenix last week. I was astonished at the price Alamo was charging for SUV rentals vs. Prius Rentals.

The cheapest vehicle they had was Chevrolet Equinox SUV for $38/day. (Click image for full size screenshot.)

Alamo SUV pricing

The MOST expensive they vehicle they offered was a Toyota Prius for…wait for it…

$75/day?

No.

$100/day?

No.

$125/day?

No.

$175/day?

No!

$200/day?

No!

$225/day?

No!

$250/day?

No!

$275/day?

No!

$295/day!

Alamo Prius Pricing

Just a little signal from our culture that the popularity of the SUV is waning. Not that they will disappear completely, it’s just that their dominance in the US auto market is on the decline with the rise in fuel prices. Still, the price per day Alamo was charging for the Prius was astronomical! The $49.15 discount you see on the screen is becaused I booked via Costco.

Which doesn’t mean they won’t return. There are a few hybrid SUV’s on the market (Toyota Highlander and Ford Escape come to mind…Ford uses the Toyota hybrid system) and a fuel cell SUV seems likely when fuel cell cars appear. But for now, this little data point is pretty clear.

Hydrogen 6: A Distributed Energy Generation Future. A Mouthful, but What a Mouthful

joelg | Rant, Sustainability | Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008

In past posts, I talked about hydrogen and the electric future. You can read them here:

  1. The promise of plug-in hybrids.
  2. The future is electric.
  3. Fuel cells will power the electric vehicles of the future.
  4. The hydrogen that powers those fuel cells will be in solid form.
  5. Where does the hydrogen comes from?

Talking with futurist Garry Golden in a coffee house in South Austin, he takes a sip from his cup and continues with our discussion. “Hydrogen is interesting. But ultimately we need to get beyond hydrogen to the real revolution.” He puts his cup down slowly and contemplates it a bit before continuing. “That would be distributed electricity generation. That’s what will change everything.”

Let me explain. Currently, energy is mainly delivered via a vast patchwork of wires strung across the country called The Grid.

Grid

The dirty little secret, according to Golden is that, “The grid is going to take billions of dollars to maintain.” This comment is in stark contrast to our everday perception of electricity: we flip the switch and the light goes on. So the grid must be reliable, right?

Maybe. Maybe not. Here’s a suprising little Reuters news piece from February 27, 2008: “Loss of wind causes Texas power grid emergency”. Texas gets more power from wind than any other state, primarily from wind farms in West Texas. This is generally a Good Thing. However, as this lightly read article points out, ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the organization that controls the grid in Texas, went into the second stage of an emergency plan when the plausible happened: the wind died one evening in February.

EMERGENCY?

Because the wind died?!?

Aren’t all the ways Texas generates electricity (wind, coal, natural gas, hydro, etc.) flexible enough to ratchet up and down to meet demand, even if the wind dies? Sadly, no. Indeed, coal and natural gas fired plants weren’t designed to ratchet up and down that much.

The same article pointed out that earlier that day, Florida had to cut power to a million customers for up to four hours because of grid problems.

So, the grid isn’t as reliable or cheap as we may think; it’s is more brittle than most customers realize. If we can solve the hydrogen storage problem by using carbon nanotubes as a solid substrate; and if we can solve the hydrogen creation problem (most likely first via methane, but ultimately via water); and if we can bring the price of fuel cells down by using cheaper materials for their membranes, then there’s a real possibility that we won’t need the grid. We could generate all the electricity we would need via hydrogen powered fuel cells that sit outside our houses as appliances, much like how our air conditioners currently do. Like this:

nogrid.png

According to Golden, fuel cells can pretty much scale up or down in size. It’s fairly straightforward to create one to generate the electricity needed for a house. Hydrogen could be created regionally and then distributed via a retail channel, maybe in a way like bagged ice is produced now. If you have the fuel cell and the hydrogen distribution system in place, then you don’t need the grid. Of course, a best case scenario would be to be able to create hydrogen locally from solar power & water, but that may be a longer term goal.

This isn’t going to happen overnight. Nor, do I suspect, will we completely eliminate the grid. However, it does open up intriguing possibilities. It also challenges our underlying assumptions, which are:
- we will always need the grid
- the grid is reliable

The larger trends are diversity and decentralization. We’re going to live in a diverse energy future; we’ll drive vehicles that run on gasoline; hybrids; biodiesel; battery electrics; super capacitor electrics; super capacitor/battery/hybrid electrics, etc. But to fully realize decentralization of the fuel supply, we may need to modify the patent licensing process for hydrogen creation and storage that are currently being developed at government laboratories like the DOE’s Renewable Energy Lab, Argonne National Laboratory, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory etc. in such a way to allow anyone to build systems to create hydrogen and/or store it without fear of patent infringement lawsuits.

But that’s for another post. For now, imagine what we could do if we didn’t need to be tied to the grid for energy. We could simply put energy where we needed it; like a village in Africa for water purification; or a village in remote parts of Pakistan to power lights for a school. Or anywhere. That’s the real revolution. Of course, we don’t want to substitute one centralized power distribution system (the electrical grid) with another centralized power distribution system (a retail hydrogen chain run by a few companies). The point is to promote a diversity in the ecosystem of hydrogen suppliers so that total system is robust and uses real competition to keep the price of power in check. The right approach to patents and the right approach to open standards will be the key. We’ll be more successful as a society if we look at open source software and a creative commons license as a model for facilitating the creation of a hydrogen infrastructure than we will if we continue the same way of doing business, but in a new energy field. More on that later.

Interview: Wired Reporter Frank Rose on His Recent Second Life Article (Redux)

joelg | Media Unmassed | Thursday, April 10th, 2008

I had previously written about Virtual Worlds on my Tuple vs. Kipple blog while I was at the Electric Sheep Company in 2007. When ESC laid off 1/3 of their staff in December, they took down our blogs.

There are a few posts from Tuple vs. Kipple that I thought may still be interesting to folks, so I’ll repost them here. Here’s one: an interview I did with Frank Rose, who wrote an article critical of Second Life in the summer of 2007. I’ve written elsewhere of the importance of this article in the history of Second Life and to my knowledge, this is the only interview with the author in print commenting on his article.

The back story: a number of people Rose interviewed felt they he didn’t provide the whole story. One, Mike Donnelly of Coke, went public with his views at SLCC 2007. Others told me they spent a few hours with Rose, but he didn’t write about the positive aspects. As Rose told me in the interview below, “I heard the positive examples. They just frankly didn’t seem that positive to me.”

I don’t think I have anything new to add since I first posted this article on — can you believe this? — 9/11/07. So, I’m making this available again simply for the historical record.

======= Original Article Begins Here =======

In a previous post, I wrote about how Mike Donnelly of Coke discussed his efforts in Second Life and what he felt were media myths about them. He specifically took aim at Wired’s article, How Madison Avenue is Wasting Millions of Dollars in Second Life, explaining how he felt it did not fully represent his views. Frank Rose wrote the article.

I thought Frank Rose’s would have an interesting point of view, so I asked him for a 1/2 hour interview and he was kind enough to oblige. What follows is our phone interview from Monday, September 10th, 2007.

====== Interview ========
Q: Can you tell me how the article came to be?

A: It really started in a discussion with Chris Anderson [Wired’s Editor-in-Chief] and a couple of editors in the magazine. I had done an article on advertising in video games which ran with the Second Life piece, as it turned out. As we were discussing that — I had already done a draft of it [the advertising in video games piece] at that point — Chris brought up Second Life and we were discussing basically, “What’s going on with it?” He asked me to take a look at that with the idea that we would probably run the two of them together.

Q: What’s been Wired’s experience with Second Life, from a marketing point of view?

A: A couple of things. First off, I wasn’t directly involved in the early marketing stuff, so I don’t have first hand knowledge, but it’s obviously no secret that we did an in-world build there with Millions of Us. We have a headquarters near the C/Net build. Chris did an interview there about The Long Tail last fall. I don’t think much has happened there since. I don’t think we’ve had - to my knowledge - any other events there.

Q: You’ve talked to a lot of people about SL — your article was rather critical — what do you think is the value of Second Life or other Virtual Worlds? Is there a value, or no?

A: I think potentially yes, there is a lot of value. I think Second Life is a not that great iteration of the idea. I don’t really mean to be critical of the Linden Lab people, I think they were working with serious constraints, not the least of which was money. I think there’s something to be said for their trying to bootstrap it as opposed to going out and getting lots of venture capital, or trying to sell it before it was built. That said, they based it on a video game engine that was already out of date by the time they launched it.

I think another thing in all fairness to them is that they didn’t have any idea it was going to get as big as it did. Once it started to take off — even though we would perhaps disagree, people would disagree about how much it has taken off — certainly there’s no question that millions of people have tried it, quite a few people use it more or less regularly, and that it wasn’t really built for that number of people. For all those reasons, I think Second Life is problematic. I think the idea of Virtual Worlds nonetheless continues to be fascinating and will be something that continues to evolve.

Q: Why do think there’s all this interest with Second Life?

A: A couple of things. There definitely was a lot of press hype about it, starting with the Business Week cover story. I wouldn’t characterize all the articles as hype by any means, but I think Business Week was a little over the top. At that point, aside from World of Warcraft, which is different–it has very strong game elements–Second Life was the only thing that was on people’s radar.

Q: Why do you think it’s become part of our culture? Even Doonesbury had a strip on it yesterday.

A: [Laughs] I didn’t see that, actually! Because the media picked it up so much. In a way it’s become a touchstone. There’s obvioulsy a large number of people who dislike it, or feel that it’s a waste of time on a personal level, or whatever, just on a personal level. There’s obviously also a large number of people who really enjoy it and feel some kind of loyalty to it and in some cases an almost fanatical enthusiasm…which I don’t mean to be a negative. It’s become a bit of a lightning rod. As I’m sure you know, the same week our piece came out in Wired, Newsweek did a big article about how great Second Life is, so go figure.

Q: Where do you think you, Chris, the other people at Wired stand? Would you be neutral, or starting with a critical eye?

A: In terms of whether it provides a benefit to individual users or anything like that, I think that’s up to the users themselves. I’m certainly not going to tell people what to do. If people enjoy using it, that’s totally fine with me. I might add that extends to the sex stuff and free money and so forth. I don’t mind if people want to have virtual sex, whatever, we’re not at all moralistic about this.

What my article primarily focused on was Second Life as a marketing tool. There we felt that it was seriously overrated.

Q: Did you feel that going in, or did you discover that after talking to folks?

A: I suspected it going in, but I wasn’t sure. As you know, I talked to a pretty wide range of people including both Electric Sheep and Millions of Us. And Joe Jaffe. Several clients, some of whom were quoted, some of whom were not. And a number of observers that are savvy in the marketing business. There were certainly campaigns in Second Life that made more sense than others, but the fundamental–bottom line, if you will–seemed to me to be that there wasn’t a great deal of benefit to it, as I said in the end, other than learning about Second Life.

I don’t think that’s going to be the case necessarily for Virtual Worlds, in general. I think that’s largely to do with Second Life’s limitations in its architecture and its number and makeup of people who use it on a regular basis.

Q: Is the criticism that people are taking a “Build it and they will come” attitude? What’s the failure?

A: That’s certainly one of the major failures, I think. That said, I don’t think that’s the case with everybody whose done something there. I think that’s the case with some people. I know that from the people I talked with at Electric Sheep, they were fairly clear about the fact that building something and issuing a press release about it and getting a lot of media play were over. There were other people I talked with who did not make that distinction, who still felt that PR you get from building something would still get you as much milleage as it did a year ago.

I thought that within the limitations of Second Life, I thought the Electric Sheep approach was fairly sophisticated. I just didn’t think that on balance, spending a lot of money, or more to the point, a lot of time, on Second Life was going to be beneficial for that many companies.

Q: Which brings us to Coke. One of the reasons I wanted to talk to you was because I saw Mike Donnelly of Coke talk at the Second Life Community Convention. A lot of his presentation was, “Wired went too far on the negative side. Here’s what we’re doing. Here’s some of the myths and here’s what we’re doing and why.” He said, “I feel like a sacrificial lamb.” Have you had an opportunity to read his criticisms of your article?

A: I read your blog post, which I thought was quite interesting. I was not at the conference of course, so I don’t know the details of what he said.

Q: So what did you find interesting about his response?

A: First off, I think the sacrificial lamb thing–I’m not going to comment on this aspect of what Donnelly said. But I think you’ll be hard put to find a major corporate marketing manager — who spends well into the six figures if not more on anything — who is going to admit that it was a failure. Or that it didn’t meet their objectives. To a certain extent, I feel like Donnelly has to defend his judgement–which is fine.

In terms of what I quoted him as saying in the piece? I think he would agree, I did not lead him on. It certainly wasn’t I who suggested going to the Aloft hotel build was like being in The Shining. What happened when I did that interview, which was a phone interview– by the way–he’s smart and entertaining and a good talker–as I noted in the piece he’s done a number of things that Coke has really benefited from. He’s clearly a pretty Internet savvy person, judging if nothing else from his response to the Diet Coke Mentos videos–which I thought was quite savvy. When I put the phone down and looked over my notes, I realized, there were two things going on. On the one hand he was professing some enthusiasm about Second Life, or at least Coke’s opportunities there. And at the same time, he was almost–despite himself, perhaps–noticing and observing all of these facts–or making these observations–that did not back up his enthusiasm. Such as The Shining comment. I felt like there was almost kind of a willful attempt to believe, despite the evidence. I sort of felt the same way with the NBA commissioner, who admitted upfront that–unlike Donnelly–he’s not a particularly web savvy person. He’s just looking for the new thing.

Looking at these two and other people and the sort of range of information and interpretations I was getting from people who were doing in-world builds, I began to feel that there was a lot less here than meets the eye, so to speak.

Q: It’s been about six weeks or so since the article was published. Any new insights, or anything that came up as a result of the article?

A: I’m sure you’re familiar with James Au’s comments on his blog. He emailed me. I responded to him. Frankly, I did not think his initial comments were very well thought out. He subsequently had an email exchange with Chris Anderson in which he made the point that if you looked at ordinary websites that same way you look at Second Life, there wouldn’t necessarily be a lot of activity all at the same time either. I would tend to be a little more critical of the argument than Chris was. My feeling being that there’s a big difference. In Second Life, you expect to have interactions. On a website, you’re only interested in the site itself. Obviously, there are message boards and that sort of thing, ecommerce sites, and so forth, but that’s primarily the focus. Maybe there’s something to learn from that. Maybe to make a Virtual World work, you really need a much larger critical mass than Second Life has at any given time. One of the draw backs — and in a certain sense, one of it’s advantages — is that it’s a completely global phenomenon. On a percentage basis, the US is rather under represented. For a global brand like Coke, that’s not such a big concern, but someone like Coldwell Banker, it probably would be. In any case the other thing that implies, is that people are going to be using it 24 hrs a day. There’s not going to be a lot of down time on it, but there’s not going to be times when there’s a huge number of users relative to the total base are going to be on it.

Q: Certainly, people must have talked about events as a strategy?

A: Indeed, they did. Events make more sense than anything else. That’s what was more impressive about the Electric Sheep approach than most of the other people that I talked to…which was your emphasis on events. I think if you’re going to do something in Second Life you’re almost always going to have some series of in-world events to make it worthwhile. That said, there are such serious server limitations on the number of people that can be accommodated on any one time, that kind of presents a problem. I’m sure sooner or later, that will be overcome.

Q: It seems to me a lot of the criticism is similar to the web at the Mosaic browser stage, or maybe even up to Internet Explorer 1.0. Do you think that statement’s valid? That we’re looking at the beginning of a new medium?

A: I think it’s potentially looking at the beginning of a new medium. In terms of marketing efforts, what I would say to that is, that for most companies, 1994, 1995, 1996–even into 1999 and 2000–it certainly made sense to have a presence on the web, but it certainly didn’t makes sense to put a lot of money into it. Certainly not to do major advertising campaigns on it. Hence, the great Internet bust of 2000. I think that whatever happens with Virtual Worlds — I do think they’re destined to evolve and frankly, I think they have a long way to go — I think they’ll probably get there — it’s one thing to be a pioneer and to make it happen, or to be part of the experiment. It’s another thing to expect a lot of marketing results as a result of it.

Q: Of the people you talked to, do you think they expected great marketing results? Or, did they look at it as an experiment?

A: I think there was a range. I think, frankly, many of the clients I spoke to didn’t have much idea what to expect. To the extent that they were doing other things online that made a great deal of sense — I certainly don’t care if they want to put some money into Second Life — I think where the real problem comes in is — there’s a lot of naive corporate marketing people out there. I think Second Life becomes something that is–people have the illusion that it’s really easy to understand because it’s so much like first life — it’s sort of a one-to-one analogy. The problem with digital marketing is that it’s far more complicated than that. in it’s current incarnation, Second Life really doesn’t have the sophistication to account for that. The sort of direct mail analogy for online marketing in general–one-to-one contact, community elements, forums, people talking back to you about your products — that’s sort of missing from Second Life in this point. That’s a problem.

Look, if Coke wants to spend money in Second Life, I certainly don’t care. Coke is smart enough — and Michael Donnelly specifically — will do other things that stand him in good stead. I think the real problem is with more naive companies or marketers think this takes them off the hook in terms of digital marketing. It’s barely the beginning, would be my feeling.

Q: What do you mean, “Takes them off the hook?” Like, “OK, we participated in that–we don’t have to think about it anymore?”

A: Exactly.

Q: I think to characterize people’s attitude in the business is, “Yeah, we know about all the problems. But what about the good things? What about the positive aspects as well?” That was the feeling [in regards to your article] and that’s why I wanted to hear your point of view, especially after writing about Donnelly.

A: Right. I heard the positive examples. They just frankly didn’t seem that positive to me. As you know, I did spend a lot of time /w/ the Electric Sheep people. Sibley is very smart and interesting person. I feel that his commitment to Virtual Worlds is quite genuine and quite interesting. I just found in the end — my feeling was, Second Life was a bit of a trap for most corporations.

====== End Interview ========

Frank and Chris’ technical criticisms are valid and something we spend our times trying to alleviate–as is Linden Lab. However, many of those criticisms do have solutions.

So what’s going on here? Seems to me, Wired made the classic mistake in Second Life marketing: build it and they will come. They had no event strategy, except for Anderson’s Long Tail lecture, which would have been a GREAT kickoff to a series of talks. Why build an auditorium if not to use it?
Certainly, Wired writers have a lot to say and are good interviewers. They would have no shortage of interesting speakers/interviewees. Instead, they fumbled…as many companies do.

Without a living, on-going marketing strategy, it’s no wonder they were unhappy with the results. Theirs would make a great case study on how not to market in Virtual Worlds–or social media. But it’s not too late. I could see where they could create an active, ongoing series that would add value to the community and as well as drive magazine subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising.

Many of their writers are book authors; they could host readings in-world. Indeed, my colleague Giff Constable has written about how our client, Bantam, has had successful readings in Second Life, so it’s a proven model. Also, there are any number of gadgets Wired could produce that are on-brand and give people great utility. Why? To sell advertising or increase subs. Success is about starting with the company’s brand values and translating them appropriately into a Virtual World. Oh…and management buy-in.

There’s a lot to learn from both sides of the conversation. Thank you Frank Rose for speaking with me. I appreciate you and Wired continuing the conversation.

Virtual Worlds in the Trough of Disillusionment and Why That’s a Good Thing

joelg | Virtual Worlds | Wednesday, April 2nd, 2008

VW Hype Cycle

I recently gave a talk to Austin Energy on the Metaverse and how they could use Virtual Worlds for meetings, education/outreach, and data visualization. One way I provided a wider context was to lay out where I think we are on Gartner’s Hype Cycle, using Second Life as the symbol for the whole VW industry. (I know, I know. It’s not the whole industry, but it’s a wonderful symbol.)

Starting last summer, I would venture to say all metaverse development companies saw their business fall off. Even Second Life saw 30 day uniques bounce around 900,000, even as their registrations continued it’s climb past 10 million. We can pin the marker on the Wired article “How Madison Avenue is Wasting Millions of Dollars on a Deserted Second Life,” but whether that was a cause or an effect depends on what side of the story you stand. Still, it’s a useful marker for what Gartner calls “The Trough of Dissolusionment.” I think that’s where we are now. Now, my own personal circumstances may be contributing to my view, but I think that was a marker, too, that we were sliding down into the Trough of Dissolusionment.

However, I think this is ultimately a good thing.

Why?

Because I think Ray Kurzweil is right that the rate of technological change increases at a logarithmic rate and not a geometric rate. This means that technological change is getting faster and faster. Likewise, I think the evolution of new technologies like Virtual Worlds are moving through the Gartner Hype Cycle faster. VW’s took only two years to crash, whereas the web took at least four. Despite the dot bomb crash of 2000, by 2003, the industry had surpassed where it was prior to the crash and was doing it on a real, sustainable basis.

Likewise, I think going through the Trough of Dissolusionment gets us up the slope of productivity faster. Meaning, sometime within the next 12-24 months, real work will be getting done in VW’s and the value we saw most likely will return, although not in the same form. While it will probably remain dark for the next year-ish, the future looks OK.

Hydrogen 5: Where Does The Hydrogen Comes From?

joelg | Sustainability | Monday, March 31st, 2008

This is the next a series on futurist Garry Golden’s vision of a hydrogen future. To review:

  1. The promise of plug-in hybrids.
  2. The future is electric.
  3. Fuel cells will power the electric vehicles of the future.
  4. The hydrogen that powers those fuel cells will be in solid form.

So, the next question becomes “Where are we going to get the hydrogen to run our electric vehicles?” Primarily three feedstocks: water, a hydrocarbon like methane, and possibly ammonia. To make hydrogen out of water and methane gas you need electricity and it takes less electricity to make hydrogen out of methane than it does out of water.

Indeed, that’s the tact taken by Honda on it’s FCX, a fuel cell vehicle that will be leased to a few people in Southern California this year. The hydrogen to power the fuel cell will ultimately come from a device that will connect to the homeowners natural gas line, although for this year’s leases drivers will fuel up at hydrogen refueling stations.

But, as many engineers will tell you, hydrogen is an “energy carrier”, not a fuel source, which begins the argument against hydrogen. That argument goes like this:
1) It takes energy to create hydrogen.
2) Storage is currently a problem.
3) There are energy losses in a fuel cell.
4) Therefore, hydrogen doesn’t make sense.

Let’s start with the first argument.

It Takes Energy to Create Hydrogen

Well, yes, it does take energy create hydrogen, primarily because hydrogen wants to attach itself to other elements. While hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, on Earth, it’s combined with other elements (eg: H20), so it takes energy to break it free from other atoms.

But, it takes energy to create gasoline, too. And to dig coal out of the ground. And to process fuel for nuclear reactors. For many engineers, the calculus of making hydrogen tells them it’s less attractive than fossil fuels. As one engineer recently told me, “The goal is electricity; currently, batteries are more economical in vehicles.”

Golden’s answer is, “I just don’t buy the argument that hydrogen will never work ‘because it takes more energy to make than you get out.’ Then stop eating and living, because that is the basic law of energy.” The argument is a restatement of the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. Anyone seriously thinking about the future of energy understands that we live in a world ruled by the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. No one seriously considering hydrogen is suggesting violating that rule. They think we can get more and more efficient so that hydrogen become price competitive with gasoline. If gas was still at $1.75/gal like the were in 2003, the hydrogen argument would be tougher to make.

The future of energy lies in diversity. For transportation, we’re going to see hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell electric vehicles, battery powered electric vehicles, capacitor powered electric vehicles, fuel-cell/hybrid/capacitor powered electric vehicles, fuel-cell hybrids, etc. In other words, energy in general, and transportation in particular, will follow the general trend happening in other fields today. For example, media. To draw an analogy, while 30 years ago, there were three TV network, two newspapers, and a few radio stations in every medium to large city (roughly), today, there is an explosion of media because of the Internet, cell phones, etc. (Indeed many 20 year old watch “TV” on their computers.)

Likewise, because gasoline is expensive; the Iraq war seemingly has no end; and global warming is a huge unforseen consequence of energy production; there’s a lot of motivation to create new ways to run our cars and light our houses. That motivation will result in a variety of solutions. So, in 1981, your choice was to buy either a gasoline or a diesel vehicle, in 2015, you’ll have more choices.

The trend to electric vehicles facilitates this trend to diversity because electricity can be generated in many different ways and to an electric motor, a moving electron is a moving electron, no matter what it got it moving in the first place. While it takes a refinery to create gasoline, there are many ways to create moving electrons, both at a local, utility scale, and at an individual level. Indeed, we could be talking about the energy equivalent of the PC Revolution.

Golden continues, “Expect centralized and decentralized methods. We should expect all current primary sources to be involved- and new ones (solar-H2; bio hydrogen) to appear. We still know very little about the basic science of hydrogen production so there is ample room for breakthroughs. The truth is that we don’t put a lot of effort into designing catalysts for hydrogen production. It is not a mature industry, and the scientific knowledge is still not there to support technological advances.

“The first wave of production will likely be based on appliances tapping natural gas lines; and if they can make it cheap enough, electrolysis.

“The ones that hold the most long term potential to satisfy most critical eco audiences - are photo-hydrogen production (direct light, splitting water) and bio solutions. (algae, microbes, et al) Definitely watch the work at Logan’s lab at Penn State.”

Black and Green Hydrogen

It takes energy to create hydrogen. Anyone’s who has taken high school chemistry has seen the experiment where electricty is used to break water into hydrogen and oxygen. My high school teacher dramatically showed what can be done with the hydrogen after he ran the experiment by turning the test tube containing hydrogen to a bunsen burner, which ignited the hydrogen. There was a loud bang.

If the electricity used to create hydrogen comes from fossil fuels or nuclear, it’s called “Black” hydrogen. If the electricity comes from renewable energy sources like solar, wind, hydro, etc., or if it comes from biological methods, it’s called “Green” hydrogen. The end result is the same: a convenient creation and storage mechanism for “electricity” with hydrogen as the carrier. Golden thinks it is possible. “Our electricity industry already thrives with all the same challenges for hydrogen - tough to store and ‘energy carrier, not energy source’ - but nobody says electricity has no future.

“Efficiencies are improving through nanoscale design of catalysts, electrodes, and membranes. When splitting water molecules, or hydrocarbon chains (via electricity, light, or biology) certain things matter- like surface area, role of certain elements (types of metals, presence of oxygen, light absorption, et al) So we are creating new catalysts for electrolysis - biohybrid, non precious alkali metals, et al. Not all methods for electrolysis are created equal.”

Clearly, the goal is to move to green hydrogen, but we’ll need to transition there with some combination of black hydrogen.

To show the diversity in current thinking, take Dr. Homer Wang. NASA Wind Data

His idea is to use wind power in Antarctica to generate electricity to make ammonia. Ammonia (NH3) is then used as a direct source to ammonia powered fuel cells, or as a carrier for hydrogen powered fuel cells. Ships transport ammonia to the US, much like we ship crude oil today.

His basic insight comes from the above NASA image of worldwide windspeed data collected over a 10 year period (1983 - 1993). That big red band just above the Antarctic in the bottom of the picture is air moving between 9 and 12 meters/second (20 mph - 27 mph). The data is old, so there may be effects from global warming, but it’s still a compelling argument: winds in the Antarctic could be used for wind power. Whether the electricity is used to create ammonia or hydrogen depends on demand, storage costs, and the current state of science and engineering.

But the point remains that thinking within our current energy paradigm will only get us incremental change. Thinking beyond our current energy paradigm is the best chance we have of generating the solutions we need to meet our energy needs. And by relaxing the unspoken requirement that our energy solution needs to be a mass solution, we can foster diversity in our energy production and hopefully, make ourselves more resilient.

To be clear, I am NOT arguing for deregulation of our current energy marketplace as I see that as an INCREMENTAL change. I’m talking about a fundamentally different approach to energy at all levels. But more on that later.

California to Vote on Lowering Electric Vehicle Requirement

joelg | Sustainability | Wednesday, March 26th, 2008

Tomorrow, California’s Air Resources Board will vote to lower the requirement of auto makers to sell a certain number of electric vehicles (EV) in the state as a condition for selling any vehicles there. It’s big news in the EV world because as California goes, so goes the nation. Read more, here.

rav4ev2.jpg
The original goal, set in 1990, was to require 100,000 vehicles sold by 2003. That was lowered to 25,000. The vote is to lower it again to 2,500.

An online friend, Harlan Oehike, gave me his permission to publish a recent email of his, which is more poetic than I could write.

—– Original Message —–
From: harlan e. oehlke
To: xxx ; joel@unmassed.com
Sent: Thursday, March 13, 2008 5:15 PM
Subject: Re: All Coming Together

Guys -

Interesting goings on in the EV world lately. Auto lobbiests are trying to stall any demand for pure electric vehicles (I’m sure ‘big oil’ is putting in their two cents worth too) by watering down California’s laws which demand a certain portion of vehicles offered for sale in that state be zero-emission. This was how the Toyoto RAV-EV mentioned below came to be. Big push to convince CARB to vote in favor of EVs. See sample letter below from RAV-EV mailing list website…

Interesting note: There is apparently enough excess electricity generated at night (not consumed because of lower demand) to charge over 180 million electric vehicles comparable to the RAV-EV without having to add any extra power generating stations. The argument is that the pollution of EVs is transferred back to the generating stations. This pollution will be there whether or not EV are using it.

Electric power created by coal, hydro or nuclear (even solar or wind) is the first competition that ‘big oil’ is running into. Their lobbiests are working overtime to slow it down until they can invest all the billion dollar profits they’re making right now into acquiring these industries. The question is, why doesn’t the FTC stop this monopolizing of the energy industry ? Big oil is convincing lawmakers (or buying them off) that electricity is used only for houses and industry while oil is for vehicles. This is no longer true unless they can stuff that genie back into the bottle. Auto manufacturers don’t like it because of the loss in aftermarket business as the letter explains below. No oil changes, mufflers, radiators, alternators, etc.

I make my salary off of ‘big oil’, however, I still expect to have a choice as a citizen and I get mad as hell when my government allows special interests to take that choice away….

Here’s an interesting link: a mashup of all the plug-in stations in the US. www.evchargermaps.com. These vehicles can be plugged in anywhere, mainly your home, but notice how most of the public charging places are in Southern California.

California is THE place for electric vehicles. For most electric utilities, demand is lower in the evening, which is a good time to charge up electric vehicles.

(Photo courtesy of bradlauster.)

Challenges for Any New Linden Lab CEO

joelg | Rant, Virtual Worlds | Tuesday, March 18th, 2008

So, Philip Rosedale has been kicked upstairs to the Chairman of the Board position of Linden Lab, creators of Second Life, replacing Mitch Kapor as the COB, who will remain as board member. Philip will also work on product strategy, something I think he’s going to love–being able to spend most his time making SL better, rather than much of his time running a company.

Having had the pleasure of walking around Austin one night interviewing Philip before the meteoric rise of Second Life two years ago, I can’t help pass up this great opportunity for a little armchair quarterbacking.

This is a typical move for a founding CEO, meaning:
- Philip no longer has day to day control over operations because the next task, scaling, doesn’t play to his strengths.
- the board feels the company needs to go beyond the startup stage
- despite protestations to the contrary by the board, I bet investors are looking for an exit; I’d bet on an IPO as opposed to a buyout, if LL’s stated goal of being the technology that runs the 3D internet is to be believed. Or, here’s a unique twist. If neither of those occur within 3 years, the CEO may be able keep the investors at bay by giving back profits, much like a public company does when they issue dividends.

If you believe the Gartner Hype Cycle, then I think we’re in the “Trough of Dissillusionment” for Second Life in particular and the Metaverse in general. Second Life has been pummled in the press since last summer and the rest of the Metaverse platform companies and developers have felt the mud splatting on them, too. The good news is that before us lies the “Slope of Enlightment” where people get real work done. One of those people will be the new Linden Lab CEO, who will be responsible for scaling both the organization and the architecture.

So, here are a few predictions on what the new CEO will do. Wish I had inside knowledge, but I don’t. These predictions are based upon observations from publicly available articles and my own experience in SL leading a team of developers.

The new LL CEO will:

Create a culture for producing professional grade, workable technology.

While the existing Linden Scripting Language is good for rapid prototyping, it’s poorly designed and materially hampers any robust programs in SL, especially those that would support commerce. Without a robust programming language, SL will stagnate.

Develop an infrastructure that works and upon which developers, content creators, and businesses can rely.

The situation is bad now, simple things don’t work reliably, like delivering an object for which someone’s paid. It’s so bad, Timeless Prototype has created a Virtual Distribution Channel because the native llScript() one is unreliable. The infrastructure should just work, freeing developers so that they can create new things, not recreate broken ones.

Make the technology more open.

I’m not talking in an open source sense, I’m talking more in the sense of giving developers more ways to communicate with SL from outside the world so that they can develop Facebook Widgets, web apps, etc. the run on the web, but pull data from the world. The reason the Web works so well is that every website can interoperate with every other website using simple HTML tags. The metaverse needs that same ability to exchange information easily within the world and without the world.

Look, the only reason we’re talking about Facebook now is because they released a robust API last summer that allows anyone to create Facebook apps and mashups. No one seems to remember a few years back when we were all questioning Facebook’s viability. Now it’s the big, mashable dog on the block. LL needs to do the same to assure the robustness, viability, and survivability of Second Life.

Provide technology roadmaps so developers can plan ahead.

LL is tight-lipped about future technology plans. As a developer, it’s always a mistake to plan on features before they are actually released. LL needs to develop a stronger developer program that provides developers insight into future directions. For example, we all know LL has been working on a revamping of the system architecture for 18-24 months now, they’re even calling it the Second Life Grid. We just don’t know the specifics.

Most technology companies–and remember, LL has stated they want to be a platform company–provide technology roadmaps so developers know where they’re headed. Currently, developers simply cannot plan because they’re left in the dark until functionality appears on the beta grid.

I know why LL keeps everyone in the dark. They want to be free to make changes based upon their priorities, but they really do need to communicate better with their developers if they want a robust development community. The current Second Life Grid simply aggregates existing information for a developer audience. That’s nice, but it’s far, far, far from enough. LL needs to treat their development community better by providing better information concerning technology. They need a Channel 9, a Robert Scoble when he was Microsoft, a developer evangelist with the openeness needed for developers to move confidently forward with Second Life.

Generate sponsorship/advertising revenue

If increasing revenue beyond LL’s traditional business model(s) is an imperitive, then I think you’re going to see LL begin acting a bit more like a content publisher, meaning, the new CEO will begin cutting sponsorship deals with large brands, something LL has been loath to do. I don’t think you’re going to see ad boards from Linden Lab everywhere, but I do think you’ll see more ways they can generate media revenue. Some ideas include: an in-world job board, more robust classifieds, keyword buys and probably sponsorships, but not necessarily in-world. If they don’t, everyone else will and the CEO may not like revenue dollars bypassing Linden Lab and going to big media companies.

If you think big media companies aren’t taking notice about the ad revenue potential in SL in particular and the Metaverse in general, then you’re not paying attention. If big media companies are hanging back now, they won’t if the new CEO is successful in growing the user base. The CEO will then ask him or herself, “Why should I let all that revenue go to the other guys? We can compete with them.” Maybe LL will create their own shopping mall/portal, or their own channel in much the same way Macromedia did in the late ’90’s when they created Shockwave.com to highlight their new web-based Shockwave technology for Director, ending up creating a media channel that lived beyond it’s initial dreams and being sold to Viacom two years ago. LL can do the same.

Make changes to the existing business model that facilitates LL wanting to be a “platform” company.

I think this is tricky as long as they keep the server side proprietary. For example, who makes money from HTML? I don’t mean the developers who use it, but the people who define it. No one has to pay anything to us it. The only people I can think of that make money are membership organizations like the W3C or maybe ISO that are membership organizations that exist to create standards. Many successful platforms are open source (eg: Apache), it seems that’s the way LL should go that way, too, if they want to be the platform company that powers the 3D internet.

The problem for the new CEO is that LL is more than a platform company. Because of the community, they’re also dragged unwillingly into messy governance issues, of which some users have made a career out of complaining. Which brings us to…

Solve the governance problem one way or another.

While the Linden’s Laissez-Faire style should work according to Kurt Lewin’s social psychology theories, LL really doesn’t want to be in the governance business. Yet, the conundrum is that they see the value in the engaged community. The new CEO will have to make a decision one way or another: either, put participatory governance in place, or cede it to the community once and for all and be subordinate to their wishes. This is a messy, time consuming problem, but one that needs to be resolved.

Strengthen rules concerning the economy

While I don’t think the new CEO will hire a particular former Fed chairman to help set economic policy, he might. But the economy is the big shiny thing about Second Life and a very few people are making serious money. The problem is that as the user base grows, so does the economy. I don’t know exactly what the issues will be, but I know they’ll have to do with keeping inflation in check, figuring out a way to allow other entities to convert Lindens to hard currency and back, etc. In other words, the new CEO will need to facilitate transactions for those that seriously approach Second Life to make money, while not complicating things too much for the vast majority of casual users who just want to spend a few Lindens on that cute new outfit from Simone’s.

Those are a few thoughts on the new LL CEO, whoever he or she may be. Life will be different in the next phase of Linden Lab and Second Life. That’s what I think, anyway. What do you think?

Geraldine and Bonnie

joelg | Rant | Friday, March 14th, 2008

I wasn’t going to write about my experience on primary day in Texas. What was done was done.

But now, Geraldine Ferraro has supernova’d and there are a few dots that I can connect, so maybe my primary day experience is relevant.

March 4th in Austin turned out to be a gorgeous, sunny day. As a Precinct Captain for Obama, I was standing outside of polling places, encouraging people to vote for Obama and to come back for the caucus immediately after the polls closed. The Texas caucuses are big news, now that it’s clear Obama will win the state via delegates, whereas Hillary won the popular vote. Who would have thought that the rest of the country would become experts on the Texas Democratic Party’s primary process, where 2/3 of the delegates are assigned by the popular vote and 1/3 is assigned by a caucus, or a Precinct Convention as we call it?

I started the day outside of my kids’ local elementary school in a friendly clutch of local supporters for candidates of many different offices. The sun was out, the flags were flying, and children were skipping to school. While admittedly the Hillary supporters and us Obama supporters weren’t chummy, we were congenial and in all, the tenor of the conversations, and the earnestness of people’s convictions were refreshing, a bit suprising, and hopeful.

I bounced between polling places, also spending time at an elementary school a few blocks away. While I was the only one in the second location for much of the morning, by 2pm, the Hillary supporters had arrived. When I came over from another polling place for afternoon duty, I surveyed the situation, and decided to stand next to one of the Hillary supporters because she had picked a good place for foot traffic.

I introduced myself and of course, we began talking. While I introduced myself with my first and last name, this woman only introduced herself with her first name, Bonnie. Bonnie is a woman in her 50’s, from Massachusetts. She told me her daughter and Chelsea Clinton have been friends for 16 years, so naturally, she knew Hillary personally. She was in town because her daughter lived in Austin and she was helping out with the campaign.

Now, there’s this thing called Texas Friendly. You can walk down Texas streets, even in a city, and strangers will wave to you. Of course, you need to wave back. Even if they disagree when it comes to politics, Texans still try to be cordial. Bonnie did not know about Texas Friendly. Being no stranger to politics, Bonnie started by drilling into me with, “Do you even know who your Senators are?”

Ah, The litmus test to separate the politically aware from the great unwashed! I looked at her with a “Do you really want to go there?” kind of look and she backed off saying, “Oh, you’re working for the Democratic party, of course you would know who your Senators are.” A Texan would have started the conversation with a different tenor, but still get their point across.

I have found that there is a slice of the Hillary supporters that seem pretty angry that Obama is taking away Hillary’s chance at the limelight. I know I’ve hit a nerve because this slice of supporters will quickly get to something along the lines of, “Has the fever worn off yet?” Bonnie was no exception. After the Senator quiz, she started along the “fever” line, which roughly means hoping for a change in politics as usual is a pipe dream of amateurs, proving that Hillary has what it takes to lead the country.

She challenged me on my support for Obama. Her criticism came down to the following arguments:
- Obama gives a good speech, but that’s it. I and the other Obama supporters are in the thrall of a Svengali as well as a complacent media and have given up our faculties of reason.
- The Experience Thing. Foreign policy: Hillary has visited 80 foreign countries, Obama has never even been to Europe. (I guess living in Malaysia doesn’t count in her world.)
- Obama’s a Chicago politician and we all know how bad they are, right? She didn’t want a Chicago politician leading our country.
- That he’s really not new, he’s been an experienced Chicago politician for years. To which I responded, “He’s not experienced, but yet he is experienced. Which one is it?”
- The corollary to the Chicago politician idea: Obama’s had everything done for him. “He’s the kind of guy you give the ball to so he can carry it the last ten yards across the finish line.” She didn’t answer why people would do that. I guess he’s just lead a charmed life. Seems more like character assassination to me.
- The ultimate insight into my and my fellow supporter’s psyche: I’m only voting for Obama because he’s black. To which I responded, “I can’t believe you just said that.”

My point is that in one conversation, I was able to hear many of the narratives the Hillary supporters are telling themselves about Obama. This leads me to believe that for a certain slice of Hillary supporters, race is an issue and my discussion with this woman and Geraldine Ferraro’s comments are both expressions of a common narrative. In other words, based upon my conversations, I don’t think Geraldine Ferraro is an isolated case. Clearly, not all Hillary supporters share Ferraro’s beliefs, but significantly, some do.

Two points elude them:
1) Characterizing the vast majority of Obama supporters as caught up in the feverish pitch of group-think mischaracterizes his supporter’s hope for a change in politics as usual. Which, in the grand scheme of things is fine to do, because misreading the situation will ultimately lead to failure for them.
2) Obama as a symbol, goes beyond black/white. He’s a symbol of diversity, an all inclusive concept, not one side of the black/white divide. His message is not, “It’s black people’s time.” His message is, “It’s time for a change for all of us.” While diversity, the “D” word, may seem to be a trendy concept to Hillary supporters, it’s a real trend in our society, especially among younger people. Talk to young adults who have grown up in the most color blind US society to date. They are arguably the first generation of Americans to grow up in Martin Luther King’s dream. Sure, they see Obama’s skin color. But more importantly, they hear what he’s saying, they see what he’s done, and they judge him for that. The fact that his skin color may be different than theirs is secondary to his ideas, yet his skin color is not invisible to them. It just is. And because it just is, the content of his character rises to the top of their consideration.

Keith Olbermann drives home the point in a recent commentary about Ferraro:


It’s the diversity, inclusiveness point that’s missed on this slice of Hillary supporters. We no longer live in a black/white world, we live in a colorful world.

My wife has a friend in East Austin, a 90 year old African American woman I’ll call Carol (not her real name). They have a wonderful relationship. Carol has told my wife heart wrenching stories of growing up in a racist Texas. One day, Carol told my wife about a visit from a State employee and she referred to that employee as “that white woman.” After a few minutes of this, my wife said, “Carol, I’m a white woman.” Carol told her, “Child, there are black people, white people, and just people. You’re just people.”

In some Hillary supporters’ world, there are black people and there are white people. In an Obama world, there are just people.

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